Entry 20, February 5, 2009

I’m not in a good state… feeling really struggling to write…

 

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

 

“The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island’s six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau’s town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.”

WORDS: 440          TIME: 00:50:37          DATE: 2009-2-5

 

In this argument, the arguer concludes that to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island’s six moped and bicycle rental companies during the summer season. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that a neighboring island of Torseau, which its town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals, is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents. Yet, the argument contains several critical flaws. I will discuss each of these questionable facets in turn.

In the first place, the argument rests on the assumption that Balmer Island is similar to the Torseau Island in all respects. This assumption is weak, since although there are points of comparison between Balmer Island and Torseau Island, there is still much dissimilarity as well. It is possible that the neighboring island of Torseau is a mountainous island and has a bad traffic environment, and the possibility of traffic accidents is high. Balmer Island, differing from Torseau Island, has a totally different traffic environment. If the above assumptions come into existence, the limitation to the number of mopeds rented may not have the same effect. In addition, the argument fails to indicate what the population of Torseau is. If Torseau Island has a small population, the number of moped accidents that occur each year may present high randomness and cannot be used as evidence.

In the second place, even if I were to concede that the population and the traffic environment have no difference between these two islands. The result of the island of Torseau still cannot be taken into account. Because the argument provides a yearly record of Torseau Island, not a record for the summer season. Perhaps during the summer season, the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians in Torseau Island does not reduce at all. Therefore, it is impossible to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians by limiting the number of rentals during the summer season.

In the third place, even if I were to concede that the reduction in moped accidents is highly dependent on the limitation of the number of mopeds, there is an uncertainty regarding the proportion of reduction due to this argument. In other words, the six moped and bicycle rental companies have different rental quantities, and if the limited proportion is distributed without a valid reason, it may not be effective.

In summary, the conclusion reached is invalid and misleading. To make this argument more convincing, the arguer would have needed to provide more evidence and precise data in light of the above analysis.